A study of socio and political trends in the state of Bihar
A total of 1694 randomly picked respondents were surveyed as part of the opinion poll from 91 polling booths spread over 48 Assembly constituencies spread over the 9 administrative divisions of the state.The respondents were provided with a two part questionnaire in Hindi to assess their views and record the data.
The ground work for the survey was conducted from October 18 to October 26.
All decimal figures have been rounded to zero.If the figures don’t add upto 100% it is either the respondent refused to respond to the questionnaire posed or gave replies of which the options weren’t provided in the questionnaire
The survey profile reflects the weighted representation of various social and demographic groups proportionate to their share in the Census figures of 2001.
Vote and seat share of parties in 2009 Lok Sabha Election
Vote and seat share of parties in 2010 Vidhan Sabha(VS) Election
Vote to seat conversion efficiency of parties in 2010 Vidhan Sabha election
Are you satisfied with the performance of Nitish Kumar led JDU government?
How do you rate the performance of JDU government?
There is qualitative decline in the ratings of JDU government as respondents feel administration is faring poorly on various fronts
Which government you think was better?
A majority of respondents think NDA first term government was better compared to 26% who feel JDU government now is doing better
Do you agree Nitish Kumar has been able to provide good administration and effective governance after the split with BJP?
Nearly half the respondents interviewed felt Nitish Kumar isn’t able to provide good governance which he promised post split with BJP
How do you rate the performance of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar?
Which government do you think provided good governance in Bihar?
Nearly 40% of the respondents felt BJP-JDU NDA government provided better governance while in contrast just 21% felt JDU government was suitable for good governance. Rabri –Devi led government is still rated poorly on governance front
On Break Up With BJP Over Modi
Do you agree with Nitish Kumar argument that JDU had to end coalition with BJP as the party decided to project Narendra Modi as PM candidate who is a divisive and polarizing figure?
An overwhelming majority of respondents about 65% clearly disapproved of Nitish Kumar argument on breaking up with BJP
Do you agree with below Nitish Kumar statements regarding BJP Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi?
An over whelming majority of respondents don’t consider Nitish Kumar’s reasons on break up with BJP genuine. An overwhelming majority don’t support accusations of Nitish Kumar on Modi
Do you think Nitish Kumar humiliated Gujarat CM Narendra Modi and BJP by keeping him out of Gujarat?
Nearly half of responders felt actions of Nitish Kumar over past few years amounted to humiliation of Modi and erstwhile partner BJP
Do you support Nitish Kumar decision to break up with BJP over Narendra Modi Prime Ministerial Candidacy?
41% of JDU traditional voters feel Nitish Kumar decision to break up with BJP was wrong.33% a significant majority of whom are Kurmi and Muslim voters feel he did the right thing. Across the board there is disapproval of the JDU-BJP alliance break up
Did Nitish Kumar betray the BJP by calling off the alliance?
A majority feel Nitish Kumar betrayed BJP by calling off the alliance.
Verdict: Voters give a thumbs down to Nitish Kumar over his breakup with the BJP.
On Nitish Kumar’s Governance
What are the reasons if any for your approval of Nitish Kumar government?
Nitish Kumar rating take a dip but opinion is clearly divided on the governance front. Among those who still favor Nitish Kumar government 31% of the respondents think he can provide good governance. A substantial 21% back JDU simply because they don’t want return of RJD misrule
What are the reasons if any for your disapproval of Nitish Kumar led JDU government?
Among those identified themselves as dissatisfied with JDU government 33% feel he hasn’t been able to provide good governance while many feel corruption and officer domination has increased under Nitish Kumar
*Nitish Kumar seen as honest leader by 15% of respondents while 11% consider him as dictatorial
Verdict: Nitish Kumar rating take a dip but opinion is clearly divided on the governance front.
2013 Vote Share Projections of parties across the 9 divisions of Bihar
BJP vote share to rise +11% compared to 2010 elections.RJD vote share also to rise.JDU and Congress down
BJP, RJD up. BJP up by almost 16.75% compared to 2010 Assembly polls Congress and Others losing support
JDU losing support and down by -5.57% compared to 2009 LS election BJP vote share to rise by11.25% compared to 2010 VS election.RJD also increasing its vote share
Big gains for BJP in Patna division considered JDU stronghold. RJD, Congress vote share to rise compared to 2010
RJD up by almost 9.7% compared to 2010 election.BJP big gainer after RJD.JDU vote base to take big dip
BJP biggest gainer in Dharbhanga division. Vote percentage of JDU, RJD, LJP to fall compared to 2009, 2010
Losses for JDU in important Saran division. BJP,RJD gaining from last election
Big losses for JDU in its stronghold Munger region with a swing of -5.8 away compared to 2010.RJD, LJP, Congress vote% to rise
Massive decline in JDU vote% in Sharad Yadav’s stronghold.BJP gaining in Supaul. JDU, others to lose vote share
What are the issue which most impact you and likely to be key issues in upcoming Lok Sabha election?
Inflation emerges as key and upper most concern of voters with 36% saying it will influence their voting decision.14% significantly feel rising social and communal tensions will shape their political opinion
Will development play a key role in 2014 elections?
Who do you think Sate or Central Government is responsible for rising food prices and inflation?
A significant section of rural and illiterate voters still think State government is responsible for inflation.31% feel both are equally responsible
Do you agree both Central and State governments are doing vote bank and appeasement politics?
There is significant feeling among section of voters that state government is indulging in vote bank politics for political gains
Sympathy Factor For Lalu
Do you think RJD Chief Lalu Prasad Yadav has been jailed due to political circumstances?
A significant majority of 39% feel Lalu Prasad has been a victim of political compulsions in fodder case
Will you still vote for RJD even though the party President has been sent to jail?
Verdict: Lalu leads popularity stakes!
Who do you prefer as next Chief Minister of Bihar?
Lalu Prasad is most popular CM choice of 29% of respondents followed by incumbent Nitish Kumar at 15%. Sushil Modi of BJP is third at 15%
Whom do you prefer as Chief Ministerial candidate of BJP?
Sushil Kumar Modi is preferred choice for CM candidacy of BJP followed by Ravi Shankar Prasad with 38% approval rating among BJP supporters
Chief Ministerial Popularity Ratings
Lalu Prasad Yadav makes a comeback to emerge as most popular choice for CM post at 29%.Nitish Kumar slides to second position
Demographics of social groups in Bihar
Electoral preferences of various caste/social groups in Bihar
Weighted average of proportionate social support base of the major political parties in Bihar
*BJP consolidating its support base among Upper Castes and making gains although with varying levels among virtually all sections with exception of Muslims
*RJD-LJP support base of Dalit-Yadav-Muslim social arithmetic is still strong and the combo is likely to further consolidate its position among the traditional support groups.
*Lalu Prasad Yadav remains undisputed leader of Yadav caste group with 53% favoring RJD. Contrary to popular perception BJP yet to make significant dent into Yadav caste base with 19% of Yadavs mostly from urban areas backing BJP
*Complete consolidation of Upper Caste vote behind BJP with 52% of Upper caste communities backing BJP solidly across all the regions of the state.BJP support base is highest among Kayasth and Bumihar .48% of Brahmins support BJP.
*BJP making big gains among EBC’ with 28% backing the saffron outfit but surprisingly RJD and JDU retain their hold on the influential Backward Caste vote
*BJP yet to make much headway among the numerically preponderant BC vote groups.
*18% of the influential Rajput voters back RJD.
*Congress social support base in the state marginal but 17% each of Brahmins and Muslims support the party.
*Nitish Kumar retains solid hold on his core Kurmi caste group with nearly 60% of the voters backing JDU even after split with BJP.
*RJD-LJP alliance is preferred choice of backward Dalits, Paswan-Dusadh and Muslim voters in the state.
*41% of Muslim voters prefer RJD-LJP alliance compared to just 21% for JDU .The Muslim outreach initiatives of JDU not yielding desired impact.
*71% of Upper caste voters prefer Narendra Modi as next Prime Minister of India.
*Just 22% of OBC voters know Modi’s caste origin. Modi is misunderstood as Upper caste leader
*BJP needs to aggressively highlight Modi’s backward caste origins as large sections of OBC voters aren’t aware of that aspect.
Verdict: Modi is the clear frontrunner.
On Narendra Modi as the Next Prime Minister
Whom do you prefer as next Prime Minister of India?
Why do you prefer Narendra Modi as Prime Minister of India?
Modi’s popularity is almost double the combined popularity of both Nitish Kumar and Rahul Gandhi. Modi most preferred among first time and young voters
Modi leads among first timers, young voters, middle class men and women and upper castes
Have you heard of the Gujarat model of development?
Verdict: Narendra Modi is preferred.
On Performance Of The Central Government
Are you satisfied with the performance of the UPA Government at Centre?
Reasons if any for dissatisfaction with the Central Government?
Rating of Manmohan Singh as PM
Verdict: Dissatisfaction high with the central government’s performance
Seat and Vote share estimations for Lok Sabha elections
BJP gaining a whopping 11.95% votes compared to 2009 Lok Sabha election to gain 17 seats a jump of 5 from 2009.The party contested just 15/40 seats in 2009
RJD vote share to rise by 3.2% compared to 2009 Lok Sabha election. The party is likely to win 14 seats a big jump from just 4 in 2009
JDU losing 5.12% votes compared to 2009 election across the state. Congress and LJP to lose 2.16% and 1.45 votes respectively. Others too to lose a big quantum of votes polled in 2009
Seat projections for Assembly elections
Seat projections for Lok Sabha
Seat projections for Assembly elections
*Social profile of the survey